Trends in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
We predict that trends in the markets for passenger cars in the individual regions will be mixed in 2021. Overall, the volume of demand worldwide for new vehicles is expected to be noticeably up on the reporting year, but will not reach the pre-pandemic level, provided successful containment of the Covid-19 pandemic is achieved. We are forecasting growing demand for passenger cars worldwide in the period from 2022 to 2025.
Trends in the markets for light commercial vehicles in the individual regions will also be mixed in 2021; on the whole, we anticipate a moderate rise in demand for 2021, assuming a successful containment of the Covid-19 pandemic. For the years 2022 to 2025, we expect demand for light commercial vehicles to increase globally.
We believe we are well prepared overall for the future challenges pertaining to automobility business activities and for the mixed development of the regional automotive markets. Our brand diversity, our presence in all major world markets, our broad and selectively expanded product range, and our technologies and services put us in a good competitive position worldwide. With electric drives, digital connectivity and autonomous driving, we want to make the automobile cleaner, quieter, more intelligent and safer. With an appealing product portfolio of impressive vehicles and forward-looking, tailor-made mobility solutions we have set ourselves the goal of continuing to excite our customers and to meet their diverse needs.
For 2021, we anticipate that the volume of new passenger car registrations in Western Europe will be significantly above that recorded in the reporting year. At the same time, however, possible consequences of the pandemic and the uncertain impact of the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU may result in ongoing uncertainty among consumers and dampen demand. Despite this, we expect a strong increase in the United Kingdom in 2021. In Italy, Spain and France, the markets are likely to significantly exceed the level seen in the reporting year.
For light commercial vehicles, we anticipate demand in Western Europe in 2021 to be noticeably up on the previous year’s level despite the possible consequences of the pandemic and the uncertain impact of the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU. We predict a moderate to large increase in Italy, France, Spain and the United Kingdom.
Sales of passenger cars in 2021 are expected to distinctly exceed the prior-year figures in markets in Central and Eastern Europe. In Russia, we anticipate a moderate year-on-year increase in market volume. In the region’s other markets, a slight to strong rise in the number of new registrations is expected.
Registrations of light commercial vehicles in the Central and Eastern European markets in 2021 will probably be distinctly higher than in the previous year. We predict a moderate increase in market volume for Russia.
The volume of the passenger car market in Turkey in 2021 is expected to remain at the previous year’s level. The volume of new registrations in South Africa in 2021 is likely to be substantially higher year-on-year.
In the German passenger car market, we expect a moderate year-on-year increase in demand in 2021.
We also anticipate that registrations of light commercial vehicles will be noticeably up on the previous year.
The volume of demand in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (up to 6.35 tonnes) in North America as a whole and in the USA in 2021 is likely to be distinctly higher than the previous year’s level. Demand will probably remain highest for models in the SUV and pickup segments. In Canada, the number of new registrations is also projected to be significantly higher than the previous year’s level. For Mexico, we expect demand to rise slightly compared with the reporting year.
Owing to their dependence on demand for raw materials worldwide, the South American markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are heavily influenced by developments in the global economy. We anticipate an overall large increase in new registrations in the South American markets in 2021 compared with the previous year. In Brazil, the volume of demand is expected to increase substantially compared with 2020. We anticipate that demand in Argentina will be significantly higher year-on-year.
The passenger car markets in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to be noticeably up on the prior-year level in 2021. We predict demand in China to also be noticeably higher than the comparative figure for 2020. Attractively priced entry-level models in the SUV segment in particular should still see strong demand. As long as there is no resolution in sight, the trade dispute between China and the United States is likely to continue to weigh on business and consumer confidence. We anticipate an appreciable increase in the Indian market compared with the previous year. Japan should see slight growth in market volume in 2021.
The market volume for light commercial vehicles in 2021 will probably be slightly higher than the previous year’s figure. We are expecting demand in the Chinese market to be distinctly lower than in the previous year. For India, we are forecasting a substantially higher volume in 2021 than in the reporting year. In the Japanese market, we expect demand to be comparable with the previous year.